From: Subject: Ode | September 2008 Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:10:03 -0500 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C9094A.0E7A5D60" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.5579 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C9094A.0E7A5D60 Content-Type: text/html; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.odemagazine.com/doc/print/56/talkin-bout-my-generation =EF=BB=BF Ode | September 2008

3D""=20 www.odemagazine.com

Blaine=20 Greteman | September 2008 issue

Talkin' 'bout my generation

Photo: istockphoto.com/zamanyahre; = Illustration:=20 istockphoto.com/moltovcoketail

In the 1920s, millions of rural Americans got their energy the = same way=20 they got their butter=E2=80=94they made it themselves. Off-grid = when off-grid=20 wasn=E2=80=99t cool, they used some 600,000 windmills to run = radios and power,=20 maintaining sputtering lights with an electric current that ebbed, = flowed=20 and sometimes simply disappeared with the prairie wind. Fully 90 = percent=20 of those windmills disappeared within a generation, as even the = most=20 isolated farmers eagerly plugged in to the new centralized power = system.=20

But today the same technologies that help iPod-bedecked college = students steal music are reviving the model of = microgeneration=E2=80=94clean,=20 decentralized power that people make themselves=E2=80=94by linking = homes into a=20 vast network that keeps buzzing even when the wind stops blowing.=20 Microgeneration, meet the YouTube generation.

=E2=80=9CWe=E2=80=99re talking about a new meaning of = =E2=80=98power to the people,=E2=80=99=E2=80=9D raves=20 Jeremy Rifkin, alternative energy activist and adviser to the = European=20 Union and many European governments. Forget about wind farms and = solar=20 plants run by conventional utility companies, he says. =E2=80=9CIn = the new energy=20 regime, the people are the utilities and their houses are the = power=20 plants.=E2=80=9D

From Rifkin=E2=80=99s perspective, the problem with those early = windmills=20 wasn=E2=80=99t only the technology, which was primitive, but the = zeitgeist, which=20 had gotten going in a totally different direction. A global = industrial=20 revolution was afoot, and its ethos wasn=E2=80=99t rural = self-sufficiency but=20 centralization.

According to Hermann Scheer, a member of Germany=E2=80=99s = Bundestag and=20 president of the European Association for Renewable Energies, = =E2=80=9CThe route=20 to modernity was like the Olympic principles, =E2=80=98faster, = higher,=20 stronger=E2=80=99=E2=80=94centralized technologies and = societies.=E2=80=9D Growing central=20 governments built centralized power plants that ranked as the = largest=20 human structures ever created, quickly electrifying everything = from big=20 new factories to sprawling new homes to giant media companies that = piped a=20 steady stream of information to everyone on the vastly expanded = grid. The=20 model for both energy and information was the one-way street.

Today, however, pioneers on the green energy frontier are = remaking the=20 power grid in the image of the Internet. =E2=80=9CCan you imagine = the generation=20 that grew up on file-sharing, Wikipedia and MySpace surrounded by=20 coal-fired or nuclear power plants?=E2=80=9D asks Rifkin. = =E2=80=9CIt doesn=E2=80=99t make sense.=20 It doesn=E2=80=99t fit the gestalt of anyone under 40. = It=E2=80=99s just old-fashioned,=20 centralized top-down technology.=E2=80=9D

EU adviser, Jeremy Rifkin.

Photo: Reuters/John = Kolesidis

The dawning alternative, he claims, will not only remake the = way we get=20 our power but represents a paradigm shift so complete that it will = also=20 change human consciousness and social relations. =E2=80=9CWhen = energy revolutions=20 converge with communications revolutions, those are the pivotal = points in=20 history that change the human equation.=E2=80=9D

The cornerstone of this new grid is buildings that produce, = rather than=20 just consume, energy. (See =E2=80=9CPower couple=E2=80=9D on page = 28.) Instead of sucking=20 energy from a centralized plant, these homes and office buildings = convert=20 wind, solar and biomass into electricity, which they use, store = for later=20 as hydrogen and =E2=80=9Cupload=E2=80=9D onto the grid. The = technology is leaping forward=20 at the same pace that turned personal computers from geeky = boutique items=20 to essential home appliances in less than a decade=E2=80=94in = fact, it=E2=80=99s being=20 developed and financed by the same high-tech titans who led that=20 charge.

You can see the shape of things to come in an office park just = outside=20 Paris. There, the French property development firm Bouygues = Immobilier=20 recently laid the foundation for one of the world=E2=80=99s first = large=20 energy-positive buildings (oil giant Abu Dhabi is competing for = the title=20 of =E2=80=9Cfirst=E2=80=9D with the building that will serve as = headquarters for its=20 planned zero-carbon city, Masdar). When completed in early 2010, = the=20 23,300-square-metre (250,000-square-foot) French facility will = generate=20 69,900 kilowatts more per year than it consumes=E2=80=94enough to = power 14 average=20 European homes.

The American snack food company Frito Lay is even proving that=20 energy-intensive manufacturing plants can be made to fit this = model. Its=20 factory in Casa Grande, Arizona, once used enough natural gas to = heat=20 13,000 homes; after a retrofit due for completion by 2010, = it=E2=80=99ll power=20 itself using only the sun and biomass from leftover food scraps = like=20 potato peels.

Experts like Rifkin and Scheer argue that soon our power could = come=20 from tens of millions of buildings like these=E2=80=94large and = small, making=20 their own energy plus a little bit extra to sell back to the = grid=E2=80=94instead=20 of a handful of big power plants. The same technology that fuelled = the=20 Internet revolution could link them, so if it=E2=80=99s cloudy in = Brussels,=20 solar-fuelled homes there could draw their energy from beach = houses on the=20 Costa del Sol in Spain or office parks in the Parisian suburbs. =

Moreover, as Rifkin explains, =E2=80=9CSensors and software = will connect every=20 appliance across the continent=E2=80=94every washing machine, = every toaster=E2=80=94so if=20 there=E2=80=99s too much demand in a region at some point, the = software can tell=20 100,000 washing machines to go down one cycle per rinse or adjust = 50,000=20 thermostats by one degree.=E2=80=9D Users will be able to pre-set = their own=20 consumption limits so they never have to worry about involuntarily = taking=20 cold showers when they=E2=80=99ve consumed their = quotas=E2=80=94unless, of course, they=20 decide it=E2=80=99s worth a cold shower to sell premium-priced, = peak-load=20 electricity back to the grid. Rifkin likes to call this kind of = network an=20 =E2=80=9Cintergrid.=E2=80=9D Others describe it as a = =E2=80=9Csmart grid=E2=80=9D or =E2=80=9Cintelligent utility=20 network.=E2=80=9D

This connective, decentralized model answers the primary = argument that=20 has made renewables the poor stepchild of the big energy family = for so=20 long. Renewables ebb and flow and are, by definition, distributed = all over=20 the globe. So you can=E2=80=99t build enough big power plants to = collect their=20 energy and run a national economy=E2=80=94much less a global = one=E2=80=94even though=20 enough sunlight shines on the planet every hour to power it for a = year. By=20 contrast, fossil fuels are concentrated and ready to extract and = feed into=20 big, powerful plants.

But the Internet has taught us a few things about harnessing=20 distributed power; namely, that if you hook thousands of small = home=20 computers together on a network, you can generate computing power = at a=20 magnitude that could never be matched by the largest mainframe=20 supercomputer. Many have experienced this phenomenon while = =E2=80=9Csharing=E2=80=9D music=20 on the Internet: programs like LimeWire allow hundreds of people = to=20 download a single file, without crashing anyone=E2=80=99s system = or eating up too=20 much bandwidth, by carefully redistributing the load. Likewise, = Rifkin=20 notes, =E2=80=9CWe can take IT to the power grid, too, and it will = exceed anything=20 you could produce with centralized coal-fired or nuclear power = plants.=E2=80=9D=20

This isn=E2=80=99t just wishful thinking. A study by the U.S. = Department of=20 Energy showed that Seattle area residents reduced energy bills 10 = percent=20 and peak loads 50 percent by using smart grid = technology=E2=80=94even without=20 installing green generating capacity. If the Bouygues Immobilier = building=20 were connected to this kind of grid instead of to the current one, = it=20 could help power not 14 houses but more like 14,000, while making = its=20 owners lots of money. And none of us would have to turn off our = computers=20 and sing =E2=80=9CKumbaya=E2=80=9D when the fog rolled in.

Hermann Scheer, a member of Germany's = Bundestag.

Photo: Reuters/Larry = Downing

The Seattle project incorporated IBM=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Cservice = oriented architecture=E2=80=9D=20 (SOA), now being used to build smart grids in several U.S. states = and=20 Australia. Country Energy, Australia=E2=80=99s largest utility, = hopes to have a=20 10,000-home pilot project running by the end of the year, and = convert its=20 entire network by 2020.

An IBM survey of 1,900 households around the world uncovered a=20 surprising finding: The ability to =E2=80=9Cbe on a more equal = footing with their=20 providers=E2=80=9D was a bigger incentive than either cost or = environmental impact=20 in opting for a smart grid. Given the chance to upend the = traditional=20 power structure by selling energy back to the utility companies, = 62=20 percent of households were eager to turn their homes into power = plants=E2=80=94a=20 case of ethos over economic interest.

Hermann Scheer, who authored Germany=E2=80=99s groundbreaking = Renewable Energy=20 Sources Act, has seen how powerful this model can be. = =E2=80=9CScheer=E2=80=99s law,=E2=80=9D as=20 it=E2=80=99s sometimes called, provided guaranteed rates to those = selling=20 renewable power back to the grid, and helped catapult = Germany=E2=80=99s green=20 energy industry forward. The country now adds more than 3,000 = megawatts of=20 renewable energy each year.

To put that into perspective, it takes about 18 months to build = a=20 typical 500-megawatt natural gas plant, and it took 23 years for = the U.S.=20 to build its last nuclear power plant, the 1,161-megawatt Watts = Bar=20 reactor. =E2=80=9CIt can be done as fast as the transition to = mobile telephones,=E2=80=9D=20 says Scheer. =E2=80=9CSociety begins to reorganize itself around = the=20 reorganization of energy.=E2=80=9D

That empowering potential is especially promising for the = developing=20 world. Energy access is perhaps the most profound divide = separating the=20 rich North from the abject South. Right now, a quarter of humanity = has no=20 access to electricity whatsoever, and those 1.6 billion people are = among=20 the least economically and politically empowered on Earth. Stats = like that=20 are especially troubling since the UN has long argued that energy = access=20 is crucial to facilitating its wide-ranging Millennium Development = Goals,=20 from improving education to reducing infant mortality and = HIV/AIDS.=20 Indeed, studies of South Africa=E2=80=99s massive post-apartheid = electrification=20 program show that for every 100 households electrified, 10 to 20=20 businesses are created. Women, who previously spent much of their = days=20 gathering cooking fuel, made particularly large strides in health = and=20 employment.

Meanwhile, development campaigners have despaired of ever = building a=20 central infrastructure that could solve the problem. In fact, = Scheer=20 argues that centralized power structures helped create the = problems: =E2=80=9CWe=20 took a highly centralized power system that had developed in our = countries=20 over 100 years, and transplanted it to these rural societies = overnight. It=20 was a disaster for these civilizations.=E2=80=9D Without money to = extend the=20 central grid to remote areas, only the cities were electrified, = and they=20 soon experienced an immigration boom that overburdened = infrastructure and=20 left rural areas behind.

Mobile phones, however, have already shown one way new = technology can=20 leapfrog the old infrastructure in the developing world. Africa, = for=20 example, has only 35 million fixed lines but has added 70 million = mobile=20 connections in the past year, for a total of 282 million cellular = links.=20 Smart grid technologies may have the same potential.

In fact, a pioneer of the mobile phone revolution in the = developing=20 world, Iqbal Quadir, has already taken up the gauntlet. In a = little over a=20 decade, Quadir=E2=80=99s company, GrameenPhone, revolutionized his = native=20 Bangladesh, adding 20 million subscribers in one of the = world=E2=80=99s poorest=20 countries and inspiring hundreds of thousands of =E2=80=9Cphone = ladies=E2=80=9D to start=20 small businesses offering cellular service to neighbours. = GrameenPhone=20 registered net profits of $137 million in its most recent annual = report,=20 which is why Quadir believes his new venture, Emergency Energy, = won=E2=80=99t only=20 save lives and eradicate poverty, but make money.

Emergency Energy plans to put small, biogas-fuelled generators = in the=20 hands of rural entrepreneurs throughout the country. Each = generator can=20 electrify up to 20 homes, and in trial runs consumers eagerly paid = to plug=20 in and power up. Such models aren=E2=80=99t just a good option for = areas that have=20 been left behind by globalization, says Scheer, they=E2=80=99re = =E2=80=9Cthe only chance.=E2=80=9D=20 Rifkin agrees. =E2=80=9CWe just need to get the technology cheap = enough and we can=20 empower a revolution that will give us globalization from the = bottom=20 up.=E2=80=9D

Scheer recalls critics of the Renewable Energy Sources Act who = were=20 determined to derail it, telling him, =E2=80=9CYou=E2=80=99re = illusionists, dreamers that=20 would endanger the economy.=E2=80=9D Now, Germany=E2=80=99s = Federal Ministry for the=20 Environment estimates the act has helped create in excess of = 130,000 jobs.=20 Even German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a conservative whose = election=20 spooked some in the renewables sector, enlisted Rifkin to help = formulate=20 and implement a plan to revitalize the world=E2=80=99s = third-largest economy.

Indeed, the timing for a paradigm shift couldn=E2=80=99t be = better, in part=20 because things in the traditional energy sector can=E2=80=99t get = much worse. When=20 Frito Lay announced its Casa Grande project in 2007, oil prices = were far=20 below $100 per barrel and some observers saw it as more of a = publicity=20 stunt than a smart business decision, since it would take 25 years = to pay=20 off. Today, with oil racing toward $150 per barrel, such decisions = look=20 even better on the bottom line than they do in the press.

Jeremy Leggett, CEO of the UK=E2=80=99s largest solar company, = Solar Century,=20 cites the recent unexpected depletion of the world=E2=80=99s = second-largest oil=20 field, Mexico=E2=80=99s Cantarell, as a sign of things to come. = =E2=80=9CWhen the world=20 oil supply starts Cantarell-ing, we=E2=80=99ll have to make very = rapid choices,=20 and this debate won=E2=80=99t last very long,=E2=80=9D he says. = =E2=80=9CIt really is possible=20 that we=E2=80=99ll get to that utopian vision very = quickly.=E2=80=9D

That doesn=E2=80=99t mean it=E2=80=99s destined to be easy. = =E2=80=9CThese are incredibly=20 powerful entities, extremely resistant to change, and not just the = power=20 industry but also people who think in the old way in = government,=E2=80=9D says=20 Leggett. =E2=80=9CThat kind of thinking has the potential to = create a lot of=20 damage.=E2=80=9D Adds Scheer: =E2=80=9COptimistic is one thing, = but one should not be=20 naive. The new energies make them feel vulnerable. And they are = right to=20 feel that way. Their business model will disappear.=E2=80=9D

As the world=E2=80=99s largest industry tries to maintain its = grip on a=20 centralized power structure, Scheer believes, =E2=80=9CThey will = argue that even=20 with renewables, we need large power stations and big investors = and that=20 we have to wait for them.=E2=80=9D

Perhaps it=E2=80=99s a good thing, then, that the people who = gave us YouTube,=20 Google, Wikipedia and MySpace are also known as Generation = Now.

=C2=A9 Ode = Magazine USA, Inc. and=20 Ode Luxembourg 2008 (further information in Privacy &=20 Copyright)